A rare earth "deal" that expires 7 days after the midterms. 7 elements we can't make. And a Pentagon that can't build an F-35 without Beijing's permission. This is not a drill.
It's happening! MTM trading halt in Australia pending news. From today's press release: "a) the halt is requested pending the release of an announcement regarding a material, binding long-term
off-take agreement with a major international counterparty;"
Here's an interesting one. Rice University has developed a new technology for separating rare earth metals from ores and even from recycled materials. It's called Flash Joule Heating which uses electrical pulses to heat material to 3000 degrees Centigrade in milliseconds. The flash heating breaks down crystalline structures allowing the rare earths to be recovered using a mild acid wash. Compared to traditional separation methods, Flash Joule Heating is far more energy efficient, requires fewer chemicals, produces less waste, and can use a wide range of feedstock, including recycled magnets and other products that already contain rare earth metals. Rice University has a start-up called Metallium (metalliuminc.com) which is working on commercialization. The company is listed in Australia (MTM). The Australian ordinaries trade on pink sheets as MTMCF and there is an ADR (20 ord:1 ADR) trading on pink sheets (MTLMY). If nothing else, the company website makes very interesting reading.
Jeff, this is a terrific find. Professor Tour's lab is essentially doing to China's rare earth monopoly what the microwave did to the conventional oven, same result, fraction of the time, and nobody gets burned. Except Beijing.
The timing is everything. China controls 90% of rare earth processing and just spent 2025 weaponizing it with export controls so aggressive they invented a Chinese version of the foreign direct product rule.
They suspended the worst of it until November 2026, which is Washington's way of saying "we have a year to figure out how to not be hostages." Flash Joule Heating is part of that answer.
What I like about Metallium: they completed their first chlorine flash at the Texas campus in December, raised A$75 million in January led by U.S. institutions, and they're targeting a NASDAQ listing by Q3 2026.
That's not a science project. That's a company with a zip code and a permit.
The question, as always with pre-revenue technology plays trading on pink sheets at 55 cents, is the gap between "peer-reviewed breakthrough" and "commercial reality."
90% purity in seconds sounds like magic. Scaling magic into a factory that ships product is where PhDs meet plumbers. Worth watching closely.
so why not own US rare earth stocks? especially with the Iran invasion and US running out of interceptors? it might even force congress to actually do something more substantial to fund the supply chain, only time they might act is when desperate and running out of time
Great article. According to the Japanese press, Japan just completed phase 1 test mining of rare earths deposits on the sea floor near Minamitorishima, Japan's southernmost island. The test brought up slurry containing (hopefully) significant amounts of the seven heavy rare earths you mention in the article. It is estimated that there are some 16 million tons of rare earths on the sea floor, 18,500 feet below the surface. The recently completed test proved that the rare earth-rich mud could be extracted on a test basis. Japan is now testing to confirm the content of the slurry and to develop commercial scale facilities. If all goes well, commercial operations could start as soon as 2028. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has invited the US to participate in this this project, and I have a hunch that this will be a key part of the talks between President Trump and Takaichi next month. It sounds interesting based on what I can find from both Japanese- and English-language sources, but it could just be pie-in-the-sky. I'd be curious if you have any insight on this.
Jeff, you're not just right. You're ahead of the curve, which for a Bubble Samurai seems appropriate.
The Chikyu just completed Phase 1 two days ago. Successfully retrieved rare earth mud from 6,000 meters. World first. Takaichi called it "a first step toward industrialization."
The samples are being analyzed as we speak at Shimizu port.
Here's what makes this not pie in the sky.
The numbers are staggering. 16 million tons of rare earth deposits. 730 years of Japan's dysprosium demand. 420 years of terbium. And the ratio is the real story: Minamitorishima mud has a 50:50 split of heavy to light rare earths. China's deposits run 25:75.
Heavy rare earths are the ones everybody is desperate for. Japan is sitting on the better stuff.
No radioactive thorium or uranium byproducts either, unlike every land-based rare earth mine on the planet. Environmentally, this is the cleanest rare earth source anyone has found.
Your hunch about Trump and Takaichi is better than a hunch. It's already happening. They signed a critical minerals and rare earths framework in Tokyo last October.
Takaichi is headed to the White House on March 19. And just two days ago, Nikkei reported she specifically wants to invite the US to participate in the Minamitorishima deep sea development. Your instinct was dead on.
Now the reality check, because this is Capital Mischief, not a press release.
Commercial operations won't start until 2028 at the earliest. More likely 2030. They still need to demonstrate they can scale from test retrieval to 350 tons of mud per day.
Processing has to happen onshore. No separation or refining facility exists yet. And Beijing noticed. A Chinese naval fleet entered Minamitorishima's EEZ waters last June while Japan was conducting surveys. China also slapped new rare earth export restrictions on Japan in January.
Translation: Beijing is watching this project the way a poker player watches the guy who just drew to an inside straight. They know if it hits, the entire table changes.
This is worth following closely. Thank you for bringing the Japanese language sources.
That's the kind of intel that makes the comments section better than most newsrooms.
Canada has an extensive list of REE, critical minerals in great abundance. If Trump needs Critical Minerals he only needs to come North and make a deal. A good example is Potash and oil from Western Canada. The Two largest Potash producers in Saskatchewan are American Companies. Mosaic and Nutrien who garner 8 billion a year in profits, SK royalties are only 1.8 billion. The U.S. imports from Alberta, oil at a greatly reduced price. Alberta has American companies drilling in new major shale oil play at play presently. Also in Saskatchewan Oil Canadas second largest producer. Saskatchewan just announced last weeks the development of a massive deposit of Alumina discovered. 6.8 billion tonnes! 1/3 of known global deposits. Combined with the worlds richest uranium deposits and the worlds largest deposits of Potash. REEs? Huge potential as well especially where the uranium is mined already, infrastructure already in place. Sask also has N.Americas first REE refining facility. In short Saskatchewan has almost every thing needed to build any advanced aerospace technology in one province! Even advanced ceramics.
Dan. You just wrote the single best advertisement for Saskatchewan I've ever read. And every word of it is accurate.
6.8 billion tons of alumina. A third of the global supply. Announced last week. Project Thor. The world's richest uranium deposits. The world's largest potash reserves. North America's first and only rare earth processing facility, producing NdPr metals at commercial scale. Mosaic and Nutrien pulling $8 billion a year in profits while Saskatchewan sees $1.8 billion in royalties.
You've even got scandium and vanadium coming out of the same polymetallic shale.
One province. Everything you need to build an F-35. You're not exaggerating.
So why is Trump talking about Greenland instead of Saskatchewan?
Because he doesn't NEED to talk about Saskatchewan. He already owns it. Commercially. Strategically. Functionally. The two biggest producers in your potash belt are American.
Alberta crude flows south at a discount. The U.S. Defense Production Act already treats Canada as a domestic supplier. The Pentagon helped fund your rare earth facility.
You don't pick a fight over something that's already in your pocket.
You pick a fight over the thing that ISN'T. And what isn't in America's pocket is a permanent Arctic military footprint, a physical barrier to Chinese mineral expansion in the High North, and the leverage to force European NATO members to pay for their own defense.
Canada is the supply chain. Greenland is the chessboard. Trump isn't arguing about what to dig up. He's arguing about where to plant the flag.
But Dan, you should print your comment out and mail it to every member of Parliament in Ottawa. Because if your own government understood what you just laid out, Canada would be negotiating from a position of strength instead of writing strongly worded letters.
As an open-ended invitation, I'd love to get your thoughts on how the work at the SRC might factor into the broader discussion of addressing the West's rare earth dilemma; along with two, more specific, questions further down.
For those who haven't read the article, or clicked the link, SRC's CEO, Mike Crabtree, claims at the end of the inteview that reaching 20% of global rare earth processing is a critical threshold for the West and that could mature/develope in the next 5-10 years with the necessary/appropriate investment.
So, two questions: does 20% threshold of global processing capacity resonate with any research you've done and does 5-10 years sound like a reasonable/achievable timeline?
Thank you Charlie and you are correct about U.S. investment in Sask REEs! Canada and Greenland basically control the North west passage which China and Russia would love to control. Would cut a lot of time 100s of Millions off their transportation costs every year versus the Panama Canal. They also lay claim to a huge portion of the Arctic Circle where it’s estimated ¼ of earths resources are situated. Again thank you for your comment.
Charlie, amazing article. I am reading this correctly?: potential to buy more Bitcoin on the cheap come Nov 10th?(as it is now linked to risk assets?). And then another question: I see that your thesis does not provide a potential to profit on the rare earths deblacle, is there any way to profit from this geopolitical rare earths chokehold?(other than gold,silver,bitcoin). You might be sleeping now, I am on the other side, Eastern Europe, looking forward to see your reply.
Great poster and article. Having worked as a DOD contractor, I'm sure the DOD logistics departments have stashed at least 10 years of necessary parts to support present model aircraft. Also, it seems like not having the military capability to lash out at temporary perceived enemies might be a good thing.
Lifer99, you may be right about the stockpiles. DOD logistics people are world-class hoarders. I'd expect nothing less from an organization that still has warehouses full of Vietnam-era parts "just in case."
But ten years of inventory is a war-fighting buffer, not a manufacturing strategy. Stockpiles deplete. Parts degrade. And the day China decides to test whether we're bluffing, the countdown starts on whatever we've got stashed.
As for not having the capability to lash out being "a good thing" - that's a lovely sentiment right up until someone lashes out at you. Deterrence isn't about wanting to fight. It's about making the other guy certain he doesn't want to fight you.
Taiwan exists because Beijing isn't sure what we'd do. Ukraine burns because Moscow was sure what we wouldn't do.
The capability to lash out is the capability to not have to. Lose the first and you'll need the second.
Luke Gromen has been talking about this for 10 years. People talk about the irrationality of Trump's actions, but, if you start from the premise that, in 8 months or so, the US won't be able to build an F35 or a missile, then there is no irrationality. Luke calls it the behavior of a cornered animal. Very logical, very fierce. The politicians who put us in this position should be jailed for treason.
His latest is out — I’ve attached it. Not very optimistic. There’s a great book called The End of the World is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan. It projects what is going to happen in the world. Released in 2022, it has been pretty accurate so far. It the US can survive the current self-inflicted turbulence, our future is relatively bright.
Zeihan's book should be required reading in Washington, which guarantees nobody there will read it. Congress doesn't do books. Congress does fundraisers and fact-finding trips to places with good golf courses.
The beautiful thing about "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" is the title. It's the most optimistic thing you can say about collapse: at least it's a fresh start. Like bankruptcy, but for civilizations.
Luke's right that we're watching a cornered animal. The problem is the animal cornered itself, then fired the zookeeper, then sold the cage to China for a 2% quarterly earnings bump.
And Matt's right that America's future is bright IF we survive the self-inflicted turbulence. That's a big "if." It's like saying your marriage will be fine if you survive the affair, the divorce proceedings, and the part where she gets the house.
We have the geography. We have the demographics (barely). We have the energy. What we don't have is a ruling class that remembers how to make things.
Yeah , what Michelle said
why not buy these from Japan
It's happening! MTM trading halt in Australia pending news. From today's press release: "a) the halt is requested pending the release of an announcement regarding a material, binding long-term
off-take agreement with a major international counterparty;"
Here's an interesting one. Rice University has developed a new technology for separating rare earth metals from ores and even from recycled materials. It's called Flash Joule Heating which uses electrical pulses to heat material to 3000 degrees Centigrade in milliseconds. The flash heating breaks down crystalline structures allowing the rare earths to be recovered using a mild acid wash. Compared to traditional separation methods, Flash Joule Heating is far more energy efficient, requires fewer chemicals, produces less waste, and can use a wide range of feedstock, including recycled magnets and other products that already contain rare earth metals. Rice University has a start-up called Metallium (metalliuminc.com) which is working on commercialization. The company is listed in Australia (MTM). The Australian ordinaries trade on pink sheets as MTMCF and there is an ADR (20 ord:1 ADR) trading on pink sheets (MTLMY). If nothing else, the company website makes very interesting reading.
Jeff, this is a terrific find. Professor Tour's lab is essentially doing to China's rare earth monopoly what the microwave did to the conventional oven, same result, fraction of the time, and nobody gets burned. Except Beijing.
The timing is everything. China controls 90% of rare earth processing and just spent 2025 weaponizing it with export controls so aggressive they invented a Chinese version of the foreign direct product rule.
They suspended the worst of it until November 2026, which is Washington's way of saying "we have a year to figure out how to not be hostages." Flash Joule Heating is part of that answer.
What I like about Metallium: they completed their first chlorine flash at the Texas campus in December, raised A$75 million in January led by U.S. institutions, and they're targeting a NASDAQ listing by Q3 2026.
That's not a science project. That's a company with a zip code and a permit.
The question, as always with pre-revenue technology plays trading on pink sheets at 55 cents, is the gap between "peer-reviewed breakthrough" and "commercial reality."
90% purity in seconds sounds like magic. Scaling magic into a factory that ships product is where PhDs meet plumbers. Worth watching closely.
May the Mischief be with you.
Charlie
so why not own US rare earth stocks? especially with the Iran invasion and US running out of interceptors? it might even force congress to actually do something more substantial to fund the supply chain, only time they might act is when desperate and running out of time
Great article. According to the Japanese press, Japan just completed phase 1 test mining of rare earths deposits on the sea floor near Minamitorishima, Japan's southernmost island. The test brought up slurry containing (hopefully) significant amounts of the seven heavy rare earths you mention in the article. It is estimated that there are some 16 million tons of rare earths on the sea floor, 18,500 feet below the surface. The recently completed test proved that the rare earth-rich mud could be extracted on a test basis. Japan is now testing to confirm the content of the slurry and to develop commercial scale facilities. If all goes well, commercial operations could start as soon as 2028. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has invited the US to participate in this this project, and I have a hunch that this will be a key part of the talks between President Trump and Takaichi next month. It sounds interesting based on what I can find from both Japanese- and English-language sources, but it could just be pie-in-the-sky. I'd be curious if you have any insight on this.
Jeff, you're not just right. You're ahead of the curve, which for a Bubble Samurai seems appropriate.
The Chikyu just completed Phase 1 two days ago. Successfully retrieved rare earth mud from 6,000 meters. World first. Takaichi called it "a first step toward industrialization."
The samples are being analyzed as we speak at Shimizu port.
Here's what makes this not pie in the sky.
The numbers are staggering. 16 million tons of rare earth deposits. 730 years of Japan's dysprosium demand. 420 years of terbium. And the ratio is the real story: Minamitorishima mud has a 50:50 split of heavy to light rare earths. China's deposits run 25:75.
Heavy rare earths are the ones everybody is desperate for. Japan is sitting on the better stuff.
No radioactive thorium or uranium byproducts either, unlike every land-based rare earth mine on the planet. Environmentally, this is the cleanest rare earth source anyone has found.
Your hunch about Trump and Takaichi is better than a hunch. It's already happening. They signed a critical minerals and rare earths framework in Tokyo last October.
Takaichi is headed to the White House on March 19. And just two days ago, Nikkei reported she specifically wants to invite the US to participate in the Minamitorishima deep sea development. Your instinct was dead on.
Now the reality check, because this is Capital Mischief, not a press release.
Commercial operations won't start until 2028 at the earliest. More likely 2030. They still need to demonstrate they can scale from test retrieval to 350 tons of mud per day.
Processing has to happen onshore. No separation or refining facility exists yet. And Beijing noticed. A Chinese naval fleet entered Minamitorishima's EEZ waters last June while Japan was conducting surveys. China also slapped new rare earth export restrictions on Japan in January.
Translation: Beijing is watching this project the way a poker player watches the guy who just drew to an inside straight. They know if it hits, the entire table changes.
This is worth following closely. Thank you for bringing the Japanese language sources.
That's the kind of intel that makes the comments section better than most newsrooms.
May the Mischief be with you.
Charlie
Canada has an extensive list of REE, critical minerals in great abundance. If Trump needs Critical Minerals he only needs to come North and make a deal. A good example is Potash and oil from Western Canada. The Two largest Potash producers in Saskatchewan are American Companies. Mosaic and Nutrien who garner 8 billion a year in profits, SK royalties are only 1.8 billion. The U.S. imports from Alberta, oil at a greatly reduced price. Alberta has American companies drilling in new major shale oil play at play presently. Also in Saskatchewan Oil Canadas second largest producer. Saskatchewan just announced last weeks the development of a massive deposit of Alumina discovered. 6.8 billion tonnes! 1/3 of known global deposits. Combined with the worlds richest uranium deposits and the worlds largest deposits of Potash. REEs? Huge potential as well especially where the uranium is mined already, infrastructure already in place. Sask also has N.Americas first REE refining facility. In short Saskatchewan has almost every thing needed to build any advanced aerospace technology in one province! Even advanced ceramics.
Dan. You just wrote the single best advertisement for Saskatchewan I've ever read. And every word of it is accurate.
6.8 billion tons of alumina. A third of the global supply. Announced last week. Project Thor. The world's richest uranium deposits. The world's largest potash reserves. North America's first and only rare earth processing facility, producing NdPr metals at commercial scale. Mosaic and Nutrien pulling $8 billion a year in profits while Saskatchewan sees $1.8 billion in royalties.
You've even got scandium and vanadium coming out of the same polymetallic shale.
One province. Everything you need to build an F-35. You're not exaggerating.
So why is Trump talking about Greenland instead of Saskatchewan?
Because he doesn't NEED to talk about Saskatchewan. He already owns it. Commercially. Strategically. Functionally. The two biggest producers in your potash belt are American.
Alberta crude flows south at a discount. The U.S. Defense Production Act already treats Canada as a domestic supplier. The Pentagon helped fund your rare earth facility.
You don't pick a fight over something that's already in your pocket.
You pick a fight over the thing that ISN'T. And what isn't in America's pocket is a permanent Arctic military footprint, a physical barrier to Chinese mineral expansion in the High North, and the leverage to force European NATO members to pay for their own defense.
Canada is the supply chain. Greenland is the chessboard. Trump isn't arguing about what to dig up. He's arguing about where to plant the flag.
But Dan, you should print your comment out and mail it to every member of Parliament in Ottawa. Because if your own government understood what you just laid out, Canada would be negotiating from a position of strength instead of writing strongly worded letters.
May the mischief be with you.
Charlie
More praise for Saskatchewan, and specifically the Saskatchewan Research Center, for their work in the rare earth refining/processing part of the supply chain: https://oilprice.com/Interviews/Inside-North-Americas-First-Fully-Integrated-Rare-Earth-Facility.html
Charlie,
As an open-ended invitation, I'd love to get your thoughts on how the work at the SRC might factor into the broader discussion of addressing the West's rare earth dilemma; along with two, more specific, questions further down.
For those who haven't read the article, or clicked the link, SRC's CEO, Mike Crabtree, claims at the end of the inteview that reaching 20% of global rare earth processing is a critical threshold for the West and that could mature/develope in the next 5-10 years with the necessary/appropriate investment.
So, two questions: does 20% threshold of global processing capacity resonate with any research you've done and does 5-10 years sound like a reasonable/achievable timeline?
Cheers
Thank you Charlie and you are correct about U.S. investment in Sask REEs! Canada and Greenland basically control the North west passage which China and Russia would love to control. Would cut a lot of time 100s of Millions off their transportation costs every year versus the Panama Canal. They also lay claim to a huge portion of the Arctic Circle where it’s estimated ¼ of earths resources are situated. Again thank you for your comment.
Don’t forget what china got in exchange for just a suspension of RE metals.
"The inflation news dropped Tuesday morning: Core CPI held steady at 2.6% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021".
Golly! That's great news.
By the way, who publishes the CPI?
"Historical models say that environment produces a 10-15 seat Democratic gain".
And models have never failed us. You can take that to the bank.
Nice article, funny picture. But of course China would never produce a flying porker like the F-35. Its military jets are far better.
Good article, really. But, but but....I keep feeling like I'm reading an Ai script!
Charlie, amazing article. I am reading this correctly?: potential to buy more Bitcoin on the cheap come Nov 10th?(as it is now linked to risk assets?). And then another question: I see that your thesis does not provide a potential to profit on the rare earths deblacle, is there any way to profit from this geopolitical rare earths chokehold?(other than gold,silver,bitcoin). You might be sleeping now, I am on the other side, Eastern Europe, looking forward to see your reply.
It's all in my previous posts. Check the achieves. Sleep? Is that a thing?
Great analysis. Thank you
Great poster and article. Having worked as a DOD contractor, I'm sure the DOD logistics departments have stashed at least 10 years of necessary parts to support present model aircraft. Also, it seems like not having the military capability to lash out at temporary perceived enemies might be a good thing.
Lifer99, you may be right about the stockpiles. DOD logistics people are world-class hoarders. I'd expect nothing less from an organization that still has warehouses full of Vietnam-era parts "just in case."
But ten years of inventory is a war-fighting buffer, not a manufacturing strategy. Stockpiles deplete. Parts degrade. And the day China decides to test whether we're bluffing, the countdown starts on whatever we've got stashed.
As for not having the capability to lash out being "a good thing" - that's a lovely sentiment right up until someone lashes out at you. Deterrence isn't about wanting to fight. It's about making the other guy certain he doesn't want to fight you.
Taiwan exists because Beijing isn't sure what we'd do. Ukraine burns because Moscow was sure what we wouldn't do.
The capability to lash out is the capability to not have to. Lose the first and you'll need the second.
Luke Gromen has been talking about this for 10 years. People talk about the irrationality of Trump's actions, but, if you start from the premise that, in 8 months or so, the US won't be able to build an F35 or a missile, then there is no irrationality. Luke calls it the behavior of a cornered animal. Very logical, very fierce. The politicians who put us in this position should be jailed for treason.
Matt, Luke Gromen has been right longer than Washington has been wrong, which is saying something.
"Cornered animal" is exactly right.
When you can't build a missile without Beijing's permission, grabbing Greenland stops looking crazy and starts looking late.
As for treason, that requires intent. I'd settle for criminal negligence.
But in Washington, failing upward isn't a bug. It's the pension plan.
His latest is out — I’ve attached it. Not very optimistic. There’s a great book called The End of the World is Just the Beginning by Peter Zeihan. It projects what is going to happen in the world. Released in 2022, it has been pretty accurate so far. It the US can survive the current self-inflicted turbulence, our future is relatively bright.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCagTWmV32nWAEGEteYQuwkg
Love it. Great comments.
Zeihan's book should be required reading in Washington, which guarantees nobody there will read it. Congress doesn't do books. Congress does fundraisers and fact-finding trips to places with good golf courses.
The beautiful thing about "The End of the World is Just the Beginning" is the title. It's the most optimistic thing you can say about collapse: at least it's a fresh start. Like bankruptcy, but for civilizations.
Luke's right that we're watching a cornered animal. The problem is the animal cornered itself, then fired the zookeeper, then sold the cage to China for a 2% quarterly earnings bump.
And Matt's right that America's future is bright IF we survive the self-inflicted turbulence. That's a big "if." It's like saying your marriage will be fine if you survive the affair, the divorce proceedings, and the part where she gets the house.
We have the geography. We have the demographics (barely). We have the energy. What we don't have is a ruling class that remembers how to make things.