IF YOU OWN STOCKS, A BOND, OR A DOLLAR BILL, READ THIS BEFORE MONDAY MORNING.

I Called This War 17 Days Before the Bombs Fell. Here Is What I Am Seeing Right Now.

Mar 07, 2026

THE LIBRARY IS CLOSED. THE BUILDING IS ON FIRE.

The Mischief Library is postponed one week. What replaces it today is the most important thing I have published since February 11.

I had three books picked.

Good ones. The kind that make you realize you’ve been thinking about money all wrong for thirty years. I was looking forward to it.

The Dow dropped 453 points yesterday. And WTI crude finished the day at $90.90, up $9.89 in a single session. Twelve percent. One day.

A war in the Middle East is repricing every asset class on the planet in real time.

Larry Williams, the man who turned $10,000 into $1.1 million trading real money in a single year, sent an emergency bulletin to his subscribers two days ago. First one in years. A hedge fund I respect is unwinding 35% of gross exposure.

The Library will always be there. This moment will not.

So if you showed up today for books, I apologize. They’re coming back next Saturday, same room, better context for everything in them. Because what you’re about to read will make those books hit differently.

A Word About the Man Spending $100,000 a Year So You Don't Have To.

If you’re one of the 1,200 people who found this room in the last seven days, you need thirty seconds of orientation before we go further.

This is not a newsletter.

It is a filter.

I spend $100,000 a year on research. BCA Research. 13D. MacroMavens. Citrini Institutional. Bear Traps. Doomberg. Seeking Alpha Premium. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Morgan Stanley. UBS. The Financial Times. The Wall Street Journal. Barron’s. Foreign Affairs. Over $3,000 on Substack writers alone.

Forty hours a week. Every week.

I read all of it. I argue with most of it. Then I decide what to do with my own money. And then I tell you exactly what I did and why.

You’re not buying analysis. You’re buying the decision that comes after the analysis. From someone with skin in the game.

I advised six U.S. Presidents, from both parties. I ran classified operations in Central and South American jungles I still can’t talk about. I won a $120 million trading competition while 72 other traders watched my positions in real time and couldn’t beat me anyway.

I tell you this not to impress you. I tell you this because when I say the smartest people I pay to read are all pointing at the same moment right now, you should know what kind of pattern recognition is behind that statement.

Five Calls. Five Receipts. This Is What Capital Mischief Is For.

On February 11, I published a piece called “America Is 30 Days From War With Iran.”

23,509 people read it. Most of them forwarded it to someone who told them they were overreacting.

I laid out three converging clocks: the military buildup reaching strike-ready posture, the 40-day protest mourning cycle peaking, and the diplomatic deadline collapsing.

They converged on February 28. The eve of Purim.

That morning, the United States and Israel struck Tehran, Qom, Isfahan, Kermanshah, and Karaj.

The USS Gerald R. Ford had departed Crete two days earlier. The Abraham Lincoln was 422 miles off the Iranian coast.

None of it was hidden. It was in the satellite imagery, the flight data, the ship positions. You just had to count.

The people who paid attention to the three clocks knew. The people who called it “background noise” found out on the news.

That was the Iran call.

Here are four others from the same period.

On February 23, I published a piece called "WARNING to Investors Who Think They Missed Rolls-Royce: The Defense Trade Was Act One. Here's What the Smart Money Is Positioning for Before Wednesday." I told subscribers to buy Rolls Royce.

On February 26, I published "Rolls-Royce Earnings: Act Two Just Started."

The company reported its fourth consecutive year of beating earnings expectations. Operating profit guidance for 2026 came in at £4 billion to £4.2 billion, well above what analysts had penciled in. They announced a £7 to £9 billion share buyback.

The stock had hit a record high.

I told subscribers to buy Canadian Natural Resources on Oct 10th and with dividends it’s up over 50%.

On March 5, CNQ reported the best operational year in the company's 50-year history. Record annual production of 1.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Fifteen percent growth year over year. Twenty-sixth consecutive year of dividend increases. Beat earnings estimates for the fourth straight quarter.

I first called silver at $23, when the only people paying attention were coin dealers and doomsday preppers. I called it again at $49 on Oct. 8 when I launched Capital Mischief and told readers to own physical gold, silver and the miners.

On Dec. 31, I pounded the table at $71 the day before China slammed the export gate shut. I also recommended gold on Oct. 8 at $4,026. It's now $5,144. Gold is up 28%, silver is up 72% since then. The miners followed. GDX is up 28% and SILJ is up 53% since Oct. 8. At some point you'd think people would stop being surprised.

One war call. Four market calls. Five receipts.

Now you need to understand what went into those three calls. Because this is not a newsletter where someone reads the same Bloomberg terminal you have access to and summarizes it in a slightly better font.

I spend $100,000 a year on research. Every year. Without apology.

I read Stephanie Pomboy at MacroMavens. She called the 2008 credit crisis before the people running the banks did. When Steph says the consumer is cracking, I do not wait for the Fed to confirm it. I move.

I read Larry Jeddeloh at The Institutional Strategist. Larry has been synthesizing global macro intelligence for institutional money managers for thirty years. His clients manage billions. His daily note lands in my inbox before most people have finished their coffee.

I read Seeking Alpha Premium, BCA Research, 13D Research, Bear Traps Report, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Barron’s, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs.

I spend over $3,000 on Substack alone.

That is forty hours a week. Every week. For years.

I read all of it. I argue with most of it. I decide what is signal and what is noise. And then I decide what to do with my own money.

Then I tell you exactly what I did and why.

You are not buying analysis. You are buying the decision that comes after the analysis. From someone who has skin in the game, has been in the rooms where these decisions get made, and has the receipts to prove it.

I read Citrini Research, the institutional tier. Not the Substack. The full research that hedge fund managers pay serious money to receive.

And I join the one-hour weekly calls. Citrini is the number one Finance Substack on this entire platform. They recommended Capital Mischief to their subscribers. Think about what that means for a moment. The smartest institutional money on Substack looked around at everything available to them and pointed here.

I read Doomberg. The Pro subscriber version. The green chicken has broken more important industrial and energy stories in three years than most financial journalists manage in a career.

Doomberg also recommended Capital Mischief to their readers. You know what that is? That is the financial equivalent of being knighted. Except the queen is a cartoon chicken and the sword is a research note that costs more than your car payment, and somehow that makes it more meaningful, not less.

Here is the thing about both of those endorsements. These people do not need to recommend anyone. They have their own audiences. Their own brands. Their own revenue.

When someone at that level points at you and says “read this,” they are putting their credibility on the line. They do not do that for newsletters that summarize Bloomberg in a slightly better font.

They do it when they find something that does what they do. But different.

The market agreed.

Three receipts are above.

Now here is what the $100,000 is seeing right now.

A BRIEF WORD BEFORE WE BEGIN. THE LAWYERS MADE ME DO IT. ACTUALLY, I’M A LAWYER, SO THIS IS AN INSIDE JOB.

I retired from running hedge funds and financial advising after 17 years.

I was good at it. Managed over $3 billion.

I also know exactly what it requires: twenty variables unique to you that I don’t know, shouldn’t guess at, and frankly don’t have time for.

Your age. Your income. Your tax situation. Your risk tolerance. Your time horizon. Your estate plan. Your existing holdings. Your ex-spouse’s existing holdings. Your kids’ college fund. Your other kids’ college fund that the first kids don’t know about.

I stay in my lane. My lane is the investment thesis. Energy. Silver. Gold. The miners. Bitcoin. Defense. The macro picture. I have conviction in that lane.

I have no conviction about your specific situation because I don’t know your specific situation and the moment I start pretending I do, I’m not a newsletter writer anymore.

I’m a free financial advisor with no compliance department and a Substack.

That is how people get hurt.

If you thought being a founding member meant I’d also be serving as your financial advisor, do let me know so I can refund your money before fiduciary confusion spreads.

So do not treat me as your financial advisor.

Find a good one. Tell them everything. All twenty variables.

Pay them what they’re worth. I did that job for seventeen years. It is hard, it is personal, and it is absolutely worth paying for.

I interviewed two exceptional ones on my Friday Fortunate Fishes podcast, which is free to every subscriber. The first manages $5 billion.

The second gave me the Whiskey Test, which is the best framework for choosing a financial advisor I have ever heard. Both will tell you exactly what questions to ask and what answers should send you running.

Nothing in Capital Mischief is investment advice.

It is one man’s opinion. A man with a laptop, a bourbon, and a cigar. A man who advised six presidents and watched them ignore him anyway, which should tell you everything you need to know about the limits of good advice in the hands of powerful people.

If you are taking financial guidance from a Substack written by someone who received medals from intelligence agencies for work he still cannot legally describe, that is a choice you are making with full information.

Do your own research. Consult an actual professional. Preferably one whose credentials you can verify without a Freedom of Information Act request.

You have been warned.

A Brief Introduction for People With Better Things to Do Than Read Nine Chapters, Such as Evading Assassins

My friend Michael lives on the beach in Delray Beach. I call him God’s Architect because he builds the kind of homes that make you question every decision you’ve ever made about your own life.
Michael called and said Charlie I love you but can you put it on one page.
I said Michael it’s a war. It’s a credit crisis. It’s a supply chain collapse. It’s a market cycle that Larry Williams has been right about for fifty-five years. It’s China controlling the rare earths that go into every missile we’re firing.
He said Charlie I work in pictures.
I said Michael you build homes that take three years and forty subcontractors and you’re asking me to explain the collapse of the Western financial order on one page.
Michael said yeah but like. One page.
I want you to understand something about Michael.
This man was in Israel on October 7. Caught the last plane out of Tel Aviv before the whole country locked down. Has had actual assassins sent after him in China by people in Taiwan who turned out to be deeply invested in his supply chain decisions remaining exactly as they were.
Actual. Assassins.
And the thing that finally got to him. The thing that made him say enough. The thing that broke God’s Architect.
Was my word count.
Here is your one page Michael.

The nine chapters are below for everyone who has not yet had assassins sent after them and therefore still has the luxury of paying attention.

Now. Chapter One.

CHAPTER ONE: WHAT LARRY WILLIAMS SAW FROM ST. CROIX ON DECEMBER 31.

Larry Williams just sent his first emergency bulletin in years.

This is the man who turned $10,000 into $1.1 million in the 987 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading. Real money. Audited.

The record still stands 39 years later. When Larry sends an emergency note, you stop what you’re doing and read it.

His cycle projects a decline starting around March 15.

That’s eight days from now.

Then a powerful rally into May that he calls “powerhouse prices.” His 4-year cycle has called every major low since 1970. Fifty-five years of out-of-sample accuracy.

The Cycle Wave

By the time Larry sent his March 4 bulletin, the Dow had spent months grinding sideways. Up and down. A see-saw going nowhere.

His bulletin: that cannot last forever.

He is right. Friday it did not.

The best long-term cycle he has found in the Dow Jones over the last 100 years is now showing a bearish wave. Twenty occurrences in the historical record. Fourteen showed substantially lower prices. Six showed rallies.

Seventy percent.

The last time this wave appeared was 2019.

Cycles are warning him to expect a decline starting around the middle of this month.

Today is March 7.

The middle of the month is eight days away.

What Comes After

This is where it gets interesting.

After the down wave, what happens?

Over 80% of the time, the DJIA rallied. Larry’s exact words: “usually with lots of umph.”

For perspective, the last time we saw this was in 2005 below, so you can get an idea of what to expect. This same pattern is found in the NASDAQ indices.

The cycle projects a powerful rally from May onwards. Larry’s language in the full forecast: “powerhouse prices.”

He does not use that phrase casually.

His closing line in the bulletin:

“Calling the exact start of the rally is almost impossible. The most promising time is May 27th.”

This is what Larry ended with:

If this is not clear, re-read it. Do not email me. I will not answer any questions. I am busy preparing for the upcoming May/June buy point.

That is the only thing you need to know about how seriously Larry Williams takes May 27.

Which is why Chapter Two exists.

CHAPTER TWO: MAY 27. Or EARLIER IN MAY.

The 4-year cycle has been documented since 1970.

Every important low: 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022. And now 2026.

Fifty-five years of out-of-sample accuracy.

The decennial pattern for years ending in six: weakness into May. Important low late July. Powerful rally July through November.

The June 16 absolute low projection.

The 2019 analog. The Dow dropped hard into June of that year. Then it went straight up for the rest of the year. Larry documented it. He is using it as the template for what comes next.

After the down wave, over 80% of the time, the DJIA rallied with what Larry calls “lots of umph.”

His exact words from the forecast: “powerhouse prices.”

He does not say that about things he is not sure about.

“Calling the exact start of the rally is almost impossible. The most promising time is May 27th.”

He is so focused on that date he will not answer subscriber emails.

May 27 is the most important date between now and summer for every dollar you own.

Write it down.

CHAPTER THREE: THE THING WALL STREET IS NOT PRICING.

The market is pricing Desert Storm 1991. Clean. Surgical. Over by Easter.

It is not Desert Storm.

After the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, the IRGC sat down and studied every American operation they could find. What came out of that study is called the mosaic doctrine.

Thirty-two territorial units. One per province. Decentralized command. Designed specifically to survive the thing we just did to them, which is kill the leadership.

200,000 active IRGC personnel. 600,000 reservists. Up to 1.5 million Basij militia.

Khamenei stayed in his office. He had bunkers. He had mountains. He chose his desk.

Two Grand Ayatollahs declared jihad. Fatwas are rarely revoked.

One hundred million Shia Muslims from Iran to Pakistan just received a religious obligation.

Now compare that to Iraq in 2003.

Ba’athist Iraq was a personality cult around one man from Tikrit with no religious legitimacy. The Islamic Republic has five centuries of Shia identity behind it.

Iran does not need to win. It needs to survive.

And its survival strategy is not military.

Tehran’s explicit strategy per the New York Times: expand the battlefield, damage Gulf energy infrastructure, exhaust interceptor stockpiles, and let American inflation and the sovereign debt bubble finish the job.

Tehran is not fighting the Pentagon.

Tehran is fighting the bond market.

Here is what that means.

Every day the Strait stays closed, oil stays high.

Every day oil stays high, inflation stays high.

Every day inflation stays high, the Fed cannot cut.

Every day the Fed cannot cut, $5 trillion in corporate debt rolls over at rates that are killing the companies that borrowed it. Every day that continues, the deficit widens, Treasury yields rise, and the cost of financing the American empire goes up.

Iran does not need to shoot down an F-22.

It needs to keep the Strait closed long enough for American inflation to do what Iranian missiles cannot.

That is the strategy. It is not complicated. The bond market is starting to price it.

The Pentagon has the best weapons on earth.

The bond market has a $38.56 trillion problem growing at $8 billion a day, interest payments that just crossed $1 trillion a year for the first time in history, and a Fed that cannot cut while oil is at $90.

Tehran knows which one to fight.

CHAPTER FOUR: THE NAIL.

Sixteen tons of rare earths vaporized in the first week.

Eight hundred Tomahawks. Twenty kilograms of rare earths each.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs warned days before the first strike that the U.S. lacks the munitions it needs. That sentence should have moved every market on earth.

It did not.

Twenty-nine Chinese export-license restrictions on heavy rare earths since 2022. Dysprosium. Terbium. Scandium. Samarium.

These are the permanent magnets inside every drone motor. Every Patriot interceptor. Every Stinger MANPADS. Every Javelin.

No heavy rare earths. No drones. No interceptors. No war.

The LUCAS drone costs 3.5 times as much to build as the Shahed-136 it is trying to shoot down. At production rates a fraction of Iran’s.

China banned exports of dual-use items to Japan’s military and inserted an extraterritorial clause making every allied supply chain a Chinese compliance problem.

I wrote about it and 32,496 viewed it and 774 of you shared it:

China is not a spectator in this conflict.

China is the referee.

The referee controls the supply of the ball.

For want of a nail.

CHAPTER FIVE: THE MATH.

“It’s simple, pure math. We have more missions than we have air defense capability.”

An Army official. On record. Before the first bomb fell.

The interceptor clock. Bahrain. Kuwait. Qatar. UAE. Days of coverage remaining.

Requests for resupply rebuffed. Because Washington does not have them either.

Four years of Ukraine, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen consuming decades of production inventory.

In the first 24 hours, Iran fired over 770 ballistic missiles and 900 drones from pre-planned orders that did not require central command.

Khamenei signed the launch orders before the planes took off.

Three exhaustion clocks running simultaneously. Interceptors. Precision munitions. Raw materials to replace either.

The Goldman scenario desk is pricing four weeks.

The Army’s own math is pointing somewhere else.

That gap between what the market is pricing and what the logistics are showing is the trade.

CHAPTER SIX: $90.90. ONE DAY. THIS IS NOT A SPIKE. THIS IS A REPRICING.

The structural supply constraint existed before the first bomb fell.

Seventy-five percent of global spare capacity sits in four countries. Saudi Arabia. UAE. Kuwait. Iraq. Two million barrels per day of real accessible buffer. Two percent of global consumption.

The lowest margin since 2008 when spare capacity was over five percent.

Iraq curtailed Rumaila and West Qurna 2, two of the largest oil fields on earth.

Qatar shut the Ras Laffan LNG facility. Twenty percent of global LNG exports offline.

European natural gas futures up 50% since Friday. Ship insurance through the Strait up twelve-fold.

WTI now 17% above its year-ago level.

What that does to the CPI: oil touches transportation, petrochemicals, manufacturing inputs, every good that moves on a truck or a ship.

The RSM model: double oil prices, nearly double inflation, cut GDP growth in half.

Core PCE already at 3%. ISM Prices Paid hit 70.5 in February. Highest since June 2022.

The Fed brought a spreadsheet to a gunfight.

The detail keeping institutional money awake: Treasury yields are rising in the middle of a geopolitical crisis. Not falling. Rising.

Capital is not fleeing to bonds. It is fleeing to gold.

That is not a rotation. That is a verdict on the U.S. fiscal position when you add a war to a deficit that was already structural.

Tehran is not fighting the Pentagon. Tehran is fighting the bond market.

The bond market is starting to agree with Tehran.

CHAPTER SEVEN: WHAT CITRINI DID WITH THEIR OWN PORFOLIO THIS WEEK.

Citrini is institutional research. The kind hedge fund managers pay serious money to receive. They are the #1 Finance substack. I covered them on January 28th in my MarketWatch column.

This week they moved their model portfolio to 30% cash.

Not a trim. Not a hedge. Thirty percent.

Every basket the same action: Decrease Long. Dynamic AI. Robotics. Fiscal Primacy. Nat Gas. Modern Warfare. Net exposure from 98% to 69%.

They kept one thing. June 2026 calls on the SPX. A lottery ticket on the scenario where nothing bad happens.

They also put on a 40% weighted short on HYGH.

HYGH holds HYG with an offsetting Treasury rate hedge. It cancels out rates beta entirely. What you are left with is a pure bet on credit spreads widening.

High yield spreads at 2.83. Historic tights. Low of 2.50 on January 22. High of 5.83 in 2022. Nowhere to go but up.

Now add oil at $90.90. A consumer already cracking before gasoline went up fifty cents a gallon. Private credit portfolios marked quarterly that have not yet reflected any of this.

The Citrini thesis in one sentence: the only off-ramp for this conflict runs through pain at the pump, and demand destruction is always bad for the economy.

Five percent lower on equities and everyone starts asking the same question.

Are we repeating the 1970s?

That question does not need to be answered correctly to destroy portfolios. It only needs to be asked loudly enough.

CHAPTER EIGHT: WHAT I AM DOING WITH MY MONEY.

I am a contrarian value investor, which is a polite way of saying I like yield and am perfectly willing to look wrong for long stretches of time.

I am not a trader. I buy positions, hold them, and wait for the world to come around to my way of thinking, or at least stop being stupid.

That said, I do occasionally make asymmetric trades. I was licensed to trade options, futures, and derivatives, and two or three times a year I come across something so lopsided I am willing to risk a dollar to make ten.

If I share those ideas at all, it will be only with sophisticated founding members and only in a setting where I can explain the machinery, the risk, and the many imaginative ways the market can separate a man from his money.

Most of this would be wildly inappropriate for retail investors. Frankly, if losing $250,000 to $1 million on a trade would alter your travel plans, your blood pressure, or your opinion of me, you should admire from a safe distance.

Enough said.

Here is what I am holding.

CNQ. Up over 50% with dividends since October. Record year. Holding.

Rolls Royce. Fourth consecutive earnings beat. £7 to £9 billion buyback. Record highs every trading day of 2026. Holding.

Exxon. Holding.

Chevron. Holding.

Gold. Called it at $4,026 on October 8. Now $5,144. JP Morgan targeting $6,300 year end. Holding.

Silver. Called it at $23. Called it at $49. Called it at $71 on December 31 the day before China slammed the export gate shut. Holding.

GDX. Holding.

SILJ. Holding.

Bitcoin. Governments cannot repurpose it. Holding.

What I am doing is raising cash from everything else.

Because May 27 is coming and I want ammunition when it arrives.

Then there is the issue hiding in plain sight.

Private Credit

Stephanie Pomboy has been warning about this since 2023. Wall Street called it “isolated and contained.” You may recognize that phrase. A hapless Fed chairman used it once about subprime mortgages. It did not age well.

Blue Owl Capital just closed the redemption gates on its $1.6 billion OBDC II fund. Permanently. Withdrawal requests surged 200%. The stock is down 56% over thirteen months. February was its worst month on record.

Short interest just hit an all-time high of 14.65%.

Blackstone scrambled to meet $3.8 billion in redemption requests. Senior leaders threw in $150 million of their own money to cover the outlay.

Mohamed El-Erian called it a “canary in the coal mine.”

He used the words “Bear Stearns 2007.”

Jamie Dimon warned about “cockroaches.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was “concerned.”

When the Treasury Secretary uses the word “concerned” about a $1.8 trillion market, that is not reassurance. That is a flare gun.

Now add what Pomboy is seeing underneath.

Corporate bankruptcies hit the highest level since Covid in 2024. Then the largest number since the Global Financial Crisis in 2025. Credit spreads barely moved. The credit markets are living in a world of fiction.

One in five Russell 3000 companies cannot service their debt with current income. Zombie companies at the highest tally since 2022.

The top 10 S&P 500 companies hold nearly twice as much cash as the bottom 400 combined. The averages are lying to you.

Over half of all investment grade paper is BBB-rated. One bad earnings report from junk. Companies like Amgen, Oracle, and AT&T have significant debt rolling in 2026 at rates far higher than when they originally borrowed.

$5 trillion in corporate debt rolls over the next four years. Half of all corporate bonds extant. At current rates. Into a war-driven inflationary environment the Fed cannot cut its way out of.

The banks lending to all of this are not JPMorgan. They are First & Peoples Bank and Trust. Axiom Bank. Cross River Bank. Small. Not publicly traded. Hard to track on a timely basis.

The losses are in there. Not yet visible.

When they surface, the institutions that own private credit will face redemption pressure at exactly the moment public markets are offering the best entry points since 2022.

That is not a prediction. That is a sequence.

The sequence is already in motion.

The cash I am raising now is for what comes after it plays out.

CHAPTER NINE: FOUR WAYS I AM WRONG.

Scenario One: Ceasefire before March 15.

A back channel through Oman nobody is covering produces a surprise halt. Oil drops $20 in a session. Gold gives back a hundred dollars. The energy names pull back hard.

In that scenario I hold CNQ, Exxon, and Chevron. The structural supply thesis does not reverse on a ceasefire. The Strait damage takes months to repair. I trim gold on the spike down and add back lower.

Scenario Two: The dollar wrecking ball.

The dollar refuses to go down. Capital flows into the U.S. as the least bad option. A genuine dollar rally compresses gold, silver, and the miners simultaneously.

In that scenario I hold but do not add. I wait for the dollar to exhaust. Gold’s relationship with the dollar has been breaking down for two years. Central bank buying has decoupled the historical correlation. This scenario hurts but does not break the thesis.

Scenario Three: Credit cycle turns faster than the equity cycle.

The HYGH short Citrini put on arrives early. Credit spreads blow out before equities fully price the risk. Everything gets sold together including the names that are supposed to benefit from the war. No distinction between good and bad assets in a forced liquidation.

In that scenario cash is king. I hold through it. May 27 is the date. Not April 15.

Scenario Four: Fed moves before the cycle says it should.

Political pressure on Powell produces a surprise cut into an inflationary environment. Bonds rally. The 1970s analog becomes explicit.

Growth names bounce hard on the cut. The May bottom arrives early in a disorderly way that looks nothing like the 2019 analog.

In that scenario Larry Williams is right about the bottom and potentially wrong about the timing. I stay patient. The cycle has been right 55 years in a row.

One noisy Fed meeting does not change that.

The intellectual honesty costs nothing to provide and everything to ignore.

THE DOOR IS OPEN UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

You just read nine chapters of intelligence synthesized from $100,000 a year in research, six presidents worth of pattern recognition, and three weeks of watching a war reprice every asset class on earth in real time.
The paid side gets this every week.
Monday Intelligence. Wednesday Context. Friday Fortunate Fishes podcast with the people who actually manage serious money. Saturday Library. Sunday Dear Charlie.
Right now a paid subscription is $50 a month or $360 a year.
Sunday at midnight it becomes $100 a month and $720 a year.